WHO'S NOT RUNNING FOR THE ARIZONA STATE LEGISLATURE

[Bob Unferth]

Here is a partial list of WHO IS NOT RUNNING for the Arizona State legislature compiled by Bob Unferth, 602-371-1165, [e-mail] as of April 14, 2012. Unless something changes quickly, there are 30 to 34 races, out of 90, in which Republicans will have no opposition. Many people need to get real serious about recruiting candidates – and in a big hurry.

LD 1
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 1. Yavapai County, Prescott, Mayer, New River
Registered Republicans 47%, registered Democrats 20%, Independents 33%. Latinos 11%

LD 5
NO Democrats are running for the House in LD 5 – Mohave and La Paz Counties, Lake Havasu City
Pamela Durbin of Lake Havasu City may be running for the House. Let’s hope.
Registered Republicans 40%, registered Democrats 24%, Independents 36%. Latinos 16%

LD 11
NO Democrats are running for the House in LD 11 – North of Tucson,
Registered Republicans 39%, registered Democrats 28%, Independents 33%. Latinos 23%

LD 12
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 12 – Southeast Maricopa, Gilbert, Queen Creek
Registered Republicans 47%, registered Democrats 21%, Independents 32%. Latinos 16%

LD 13
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 13 – North Yuma and far west Maricopa
Registered Republicans 41%, registered Democrats 25%, Independents 31%. Latinos 31%
Senator Dan Shooter, the Russell Pearce appointed first term Republican chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, running for the Senate on the Republican ticket in this district. He has a 34% approval rating according to an Arizona Working Families poll. Ds and Is outnumber Rs.

LD 15
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 15 – North central Maricopa, Deer Valley
Registered Republicans 43%, registered Democrats 23%, Independents 34%. Latinos 10%

LD 16
NO Democrat is running for the Senate in LD 16. – Mesa and far east Maricopa, north Pinal, Apache Junction
Registered Republicans 39%, registered Democrats 23%, Independents 38%. Latinos 17%

LD 18
NO Democrat is running for the Senate in LD 18 - South central Maricopa, Mesa
Registered Republicans 37%, registered Democrats 29%, Independents 34%. Latinos 15%
There are reports that a full slate of Democrats will be running, but no news reports or presence on any websites. John McComish, the Republican running for the Senate in LD18 has a 30% approval rating. And no visible Democratic opponent?

LD 20
NO Democrat is running for the Senate in LD 20 – parts of Phoenix & west central Maricopa, Peoria
Registered Republicans 37%, registered Democrats 29%, Independents 34%. Latinos 22%
Linda Gray, the Republican running for the Senate in LD20 has a 30% approval rating. And no visible Democratic opponent?

LD 21
NO Democrat is running for the Senate in LD 21 - parts of Peoria and Sun City, bordered on the east by 67th Ave, on the south by Northern, on the north by Bell Rd and on the west by Litchfield Rd.
Registered Republicans 38%, registered Democrats 29%, Independents 33%. Latinos 25%

LD 22
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 22 – far northwest Maricopa, parts of Sun City and Peoria, Surprise – north of Peoria Ave and Bell Rd, west of 67th Ave.
Registered Republicans 45%, registered Democrats 23%, Independents 32%. Latinos 10%

LD 23
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 23 – Scottsdale, far east Maricopa, Fountain Hills
Registered Republicans 45%, registered Democrats 22%, Independents 33%. Latinos 6%
Michele Reagan, the Republican running for the Senate in this District has a 36% approval rating. And no visible Democratic opponent?

LD 25
NO Democrats AT ALL are running in LD 25 – far east Maricopa, Mesa
Registered Republicans 46%, registered Democrats 23%, Independents 31%. Latinos 20%

Democrats are NOT running anybody for one or more seats in LD 1, 5, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 25 and 28. Half the legislative districts. The deadline for filing is May 30, 2012. And who are the Democrats running for Maricopa County Attorney against Montgomery?

I don’t know what legislative Districts these possible candidates may be running in.
House: Ruth Davis (Tucson), Tom Nerini (Phoenix, 15?)
Senate: Tony Flores (Phoenix, 24?)

The Democrats are not running anybody in 10 or 11 of the 30 Senate Districts, and they are not running anybody in 20 to 23 House races out of 60. Republicans need to win less than 30% of the contested races to have a majority in both houses.

Arizona is not that conservative a state. McCain won Arizona with only 54% of the vote. With fair redistricting this time around and the changing demographics, it doesn't make sense to let Republicans gain a majority in both houses of the legislature by forfeiting 30 or more seats.

A downside of not having candidates for the legislature is that it frees resources for Republicans to use against other Democratic candidates: President, US Senator, Congress people, and Democratic candidates in other districts. And, Democrats lose the involvement of those legislative candidates whose campaigns of voter registration, PEVLing, voter education and GOTV will help other Democratic candidates.

Imagine the extra energy, and votes, generated by an additional 30 candidates for the state legislature - even just 20 more candidates

I've had many people whistle in the wind about this; saying that there are candidates about to file or that the list doesn't match the Secretary of State's website. "Candidates about to file" reminds me of vaporware. And my list does match the Secretary of State's list after one makes adjustments for hangover listings from 2010, confusion about the changes from redistricting, and numerous errors in the Secretary's listings.

It would be nice if there really were another 20 or 30 Democrats running. But if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. It just isn't so, and time is running out.

I also know of several people who've done something, and two who actually produced a potential candidate. Only 30 or so to go.

[Carol J. Corsica]

This would be part of the 30-district strategy we were promised so many times by Democratic party leaders but it never materialized. Women are asking who is running against Nancy Barto? Senator Barto helped get passed the 20-week abortion ban and other anti-choice bills that every Republican in the legislature voted for.

Jane Hydrick, who was running for the Maricopa County Community College Board, is now running for the State Senate in LD18. This might be bad for the Maricopa Community College Board if there is no replacement candidate for that board. My concern is that even if people have filed to run, it is no guarantee that they will qualify for the ballot.

[Frank Bing]

I believe the Dems had a "come to Jesus" meeting with Doyle Burke, and he seems to have come around to the party line on CC issues. Because of that, the decision by Janie (and the party) to pursue the State Senate seat is looking like a solid idea.

Not only did Janie qualify for the ballot with nearly three times the needed signatures, she's hit the ground running, and the LD18 race is attracting statewide (and some national) attention. Endorsements are rolling in. Talk up this race with everyone. Have folks visit Janie's web site at www.hydrickforaz.com to learn more about Janie and make a donation. This race will cost upwards of $100K.

 

[Bob Unferth]

Pat Flickner has indicated that she will run against Nancy Barto in LD 15, but there's nothing on the Secretary of State's website nor anywhere else public.  

If all of the announced and rumored candidates (as of April 17) qualify, there will be 8 Republicans in the Senate and 21 in the House running unopposed.  

I can understand not running anyone against Jerry Lewis or Bob Worsley.  That leaves 6 Senate seats.

I can understand one-shotting some House seats.  There are still 7 House Districts in which no Democrat at all is running.  13 concessions is a lot better than 30, but very definitely 13 too many.  

And, as you point out, some of these candidates will be vapor. There is a considerable distance between agreeing to run and filing and between filing and qualifying.  

In my opinion there are three  things that need doing NOW about this candidate situation:

1.  Recruit - a job not only for the Democratic Party, but also for everyone with a decent concern for the future of our state and country

2.  Help with filing, legalities and paper work issues - the Democratic Party should be front and center on this, but there are lots of former candidates, lawyers and others who know how this works and should step up and offer any candidate some free help.

3.  Help with getting signatures - anybody reasonably healthy can do this.  Door to door, at libraries, etc.  The Democratic Party can organize events, but don't wait to be asked.  Volunteer, not just by signing up on the website - these guys are disorganized.  Call, email, facebook message the candidate asking for petitions and specifically offering to help get signatures.  

The signature requirements are pretty modest - around 500 or less, which means less than a thousand, maybe 700 or so in most districts.  Still, figure a volunteer walking will get 4 to 10 signatures, maybe 10 to 15 at a  library or other busy public place in two hour stints.  That means 70+ volunteer days with only six  weekends left till May 30.  It's a lot tougher than it sounds.

All this MUST be finished by May 30 - that's 42 days.

LET'S GET STARTED !!  NOW !!

[Joe Murphy]

$1,000,000 of clean election money left on the table because it is so easy for Democrats to raise $1,000,000 for helping to get out the vote from Democrats across the state for Candidates running for state-wide seats...this is the Rom Emmanuel system for electing Democrats...it has worked so well for so many years in Arizona that the Dem Party doesn't see any reason to change.  Very sad...