LD20 - The key to the Arizona legislature

[Bob Unferth]

LD20 is east of 67th Ave, west of Cave Creek, north of Dunlap (Thurderbird on the east side of I-17) and south of Bell (Union Hills east of 35th Ave).

Michael Powell is the Democrat running for the Senate in this District and he is running against Republican Kimberly Yee and Independent Doug Quelland. Those two may split the Republican vote, making a Powell win more likely. Yee was the sponsor of the bill to ban all abortions after 20 weeks. Quelland, a Republican was removed from office in 2010 for campaign finance law violations.

Jackie Thrasher and Tonya Norwood are running against former minuteman and birther Carl Seel, rumored to be the dumbest state representative in the Arizona legislature. Seel recently made news by having his house foreclosed. Thrasher is an experienced and effective campaigner, and Norwood is running a powerful campaign. The other Republican candidate for the House is Paul Boyer.

The District is registered Republicans 37%, registered Democrats 29%, Independents 34%. Latinos 22%.

Fund raising in the campaign has gone like this:

Powell-D, running clean
Yee-R, raised $11k, cash on hand $36k as of August 16
Queeland-I, raised $1k, cash on hand $1k as of August 16

Thrasher-D, running clean
Norwood-D, raised $3k, cash on hand $4k as of August 16
Seel-R, raised $16k, cash on hand $2k as of August 16
Boyer-R, raised $14k, cash on hand $8k as of August 16

With two really flawed candidates and a novice on the Republican side, a split of the Republican vote for Senate, a Democratic year, an energized Latino electorate, and with strong Democratic candidates; could this Republican District send three Democrats to the state legislature? Could that play a role in a tied or Democratic majority House or Senate?